中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博新闻社2023年6月13日报道，欧佩克公布的最新统计数据显示，沙特阿拉伯最新的石油减产将在7月份大幅收紧全球市场。

甚至在沙特阿拉伯一周前出人意料地宣布新的减产措施之前，石油输出国组织(欧佩克)就预计，随着疫情结束后燃料需求的复苏，全球原油库存将在下半年迅速消耗。

利雅得将在7月份实施每天100万桶的减产计划，而且可能会持续更长时间，全球市场短缺将会加剧。欧佩克周二发布的一份报告显示，7月份全球石油日消费量将超过供应量约270万桶。

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如果沙特阿拉伯选择将减产延长至整个第三季度，这将是全球市场自2021年以来的最大供应不足。

尽管预计供应紧张，但迄今为止，市场原油交易商对沙特能源大臣萨勒曼6月4日公布的新减产措施反应冷淡。自沙特阿拉伯的减产计划出台以来，布伦特原油期货已下跌4%，至每桶73美元附近，原因是对需求低迷的担忧成为焦点。

油价回落可能会受到美国和其他石油消费国的欢迎，这些国家曾谴责欧佩克及其盟友通过停止石油供应来加剧通货膨胀。但这对沙特阿拉伯等产油国来说可能是痛苦的，国际货币基金组织认为，沙特阿拉伯需要油价高于80美元才能覆盖支出。

一旦利雅得在7月份继续每天减产100万桶原油产量，全球市场每天缺口将进一步扩大至约270万桶。萨勒曼表示，沙特将让市场对未来几个月是否会继续减产保持“悬念”。

欧佩克的预测取决于下一季度全球日需求的大幅增长，大约为120万桶。总部位于维也纳的欧佩克秘书处预测，今年全球全年的石油日消费量将大幅增加230万桶，日均需求量将达到1.019亿桶。

为石油消费国提供建议的国际能源署(IEA)将在周三发布其对全球供需的最新预测，包括对2024年的首次详细评估。

李峻 编译自 彭博社

原文如下：

OPEC data shows Saudi oil production cuts will sharply tighten global markets

Saudi Arabia’s latest oil production cuts are set to tighten global markets sharply next month, data from OPEC show.

Even before the kingdom announced its surprise new measures just over a week ago, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expected that world inventories would deplete rapidly in the second half amid a post-pandemic recovery in fuel demand.

With the 1 million barrel-a-day cutback to be implemented by Riyadh in July — and possibly longer — the shortfall will intensify. World consumption will exceed supplies by roughly 2.7 MMbpd next month, a report from OPEC indicated on Tuesday.

If the kingdom opted to extend the reduction for the whole third quarter, it would be the biggest deficit since 2021.

Despite the projected tightness, crude traders have so far reacted with indifference to the new curbs unveiled by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on June 4. Brent futures have declined 4% to near $73 a barrel since Riyadh’s plan emerged, as fears over lackluster demand in China take center stage.

The price retreat may be welcomed by the U.S. and other consuming nations, which have condemned OPEC and its allies for stoking inflation by withholding oil supplies. But it could be painful for producers like the Saudis, which the IMF believes needs oil prices above $80 to cover government spending.

Once Riyadh goes ahead with the extra 1 MMbpd reduction in July, the shortfall will deepen to roughly 2.7 MMbpd. Prince Abdulaziz has said he will keep markets “in suspense” on whether the cut will remain in place in later months.

The organization’s forecasts hinge on a significant increase in global demand next quarter, of about 1.2 MMbpd. For 2023 as a whole, OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat predicts that consumption will climb by a hefty 2.3 MMbpd, to average 101.9 million a day.

The International Energy Agency, which advises consuming nations, will release its latest projections for global supply and demand — including its first detailed assessment of 2024 — on Wednesday.

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